8.2c Probability Of An Event

Example:

The masses of pears in a fruit stall are normally distributed with a mean of 220g and a variance of 100g. Find the probability that a pear that is picked at random has a mass

(a) of more than 230g.
(b) between 210g and 225g.

Hence, find the value of h such that 90% of the pears weigh more than h g.

Solution:

m220g
σ = √100 = 10g
Let X be the mass of a pear.

(a)

P(X>230)=P(Z>23022010)Convert to standard normaldistribution usingZ=Xμσ=P(Z>1)=0.1587

(b)

P(210<X<225)=P(21022010<Z<22522010)Convert to standard normaldistribution usingZ=Xμσ=P(1<Z<0.5)=1P(Z>1)P(Z>0.5)=10.15870.3085=0.5328

For 90% (probability = 0.9) of the pears weigh more than h g, 
P(X > h) = 0.9
P(X < h) = 1 – 0.9
                = 0.1
From the standard normal distribution table,
P(Z > 0.4602) = 0.1
P(Z < –0.4602) = 0.1

h22010=0.4602h220=4.602h=215.4